Solving problem N4260 Bayesian probability theory

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Uploaded: 11.07.2020
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4260. The first factory manufactured 3000 devices, the second - 10000, the third - 1000 devices. The first factory produces an average of 1% of defective parts, the second - 0.5%, the third - 1.5%. At random, the selected device turned out to be defective. What is the likelihood that this device was manufactured by a second factory?

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Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)

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